Climate Risks Loom Large Across India’s 11,000-km Coastline, Warns Azim Premji University Report

Chennai, June 5, 2026: India’s vast coastline is facing immediate and far-reaching climate risks that could significantly impact communities, livelihoods, public health, and ecosystems within the next decade and a half, according to a new report released by Azim Premji University. 

(L to R) Prof. Santonu Goswami, School of Climate Change & Sustainability; Shashwat DC, Research Communications, Azim Premji University

Titled Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021-2040, the study presents district-level climate projections using high-resolution data and warns that adaptation measures can no longer be delayed as global warming intensifies across the country’s coastal regions.

Press conference Youtube Video link 👇 

The report, based on advanced CMIP6 climate models corrected for regional bias, maps climate shifts between 2021 and 2040 against a historical baseline from the 1960s. It highlights that India is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C warming threshold, making climate impacts increasingly visible and immediate across coastal districts.

Addressing the media, Anurag Behar said climate change is no longer a distant concern but a present-day reality that requires urgent action. He noted that the findings underscore the need to redesign infrastructure, governance systems and development planning to cope with escalating climate challenges.

The report identifies rising temperatures, extreme heat stress, changing monsoon patterns, sea-level rise, coastal erosion and stronger cyclones as major threats. Average temperatures across India are projected to increase by 1.5°C, while nearly 40 coastal districts may witness summer temperature rises exceeding 1°C. Coastal districts in Kerala and Tamil Nadu are expected to experience dangerously high wet-bulb temperatures, approaching levels that pose serious risks to human health.

Among the most affected regions, Ernakulam is projected to record the highest increase in maximum summer temperatures at 1.3°C. On the west coast, intensified monsoon activity is expected to bring significantly higher rainfall to Maharashtra and Gujarat, with Surat likely to witness a 23 percent increase in southwest monsoon rainfall and suburban Mumbai experiencing nearly an additional week of heavy rain annually.

Speaking on the report’s findings, Harini Nagendra said the data demonstrates that climate change has become a hyper-local challenge affecting everyday life. She emphasized the need for a transition from reactive responses to proactive adaptation strategies that address the ecological realities confronting coastal India.

Tamil Nadu’s coastline is projected to undergo substantial environmental changes. Chennai could see summer maximum temperatures rise by 1°C and experience a 12 percent increase in southwest monsoon intensity. Nagapattinam is expected to receive 20 percent more rainfall during the northeast monsoon. Traditional livelihood systems are also under pressure, with fishing communities in Rameswaram reporting increasingly unpredictable wind patterns and the seaweed industry in Thoothukudi facing challenges from rising sea temperatures.

The report further warns that global sea levels could rise by 15 centimetres by 2050 under moderate-emission scenarios, accelerating coastal erosion and threatening vulnerable settlements. Rising sea surface temperatures are also increasing the likelihood of more intense tropical cyclones. In addition, coastal communities are already witnessing disruptions to traditional occupations, including declining fish catches, damaged salt harvests and growing health concerns linked to rising salinity levels.

Researchers said the report is intended to provide local governments and policymakers with actionable, district-level data to strengthen climate resilience and protect coastal populations from the escalating impacts of climate change.

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