PMJC Releases “MANDATE 2026” Political Intelligence Report on Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections 2026

New Delhi / Chennai, March 5, 2026: The Press Media & Journalists Council (PMJC) has released “MANDATE 2026: The Intelligence Briefing,” a comprehensive political intelligence report analysing the upcoming Tamil Nadu 2026 Assembly Elections across all 234 constituencies and 5.67 crore verified voters. The report was unveiled at a press conference held at the Chennai Press Club, Chepauk, in the presence of senior journalists and media representatives from across the state.

Sanjay Agarwal, Founder & Chairman of PMJC

The report presents a data-driven and probability-based analysis of Tamil Nadu’s electoral landscape. Its central finding states that the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) currently remains the frontrunner, but faces strong anti-incumbency pressures.

According to the analysis, 61% of voters want a change in their MLA, while 53% perceive corruption to have increased under the current government. Despite this, vote fragmentation between the AIADMK–NDA alliance and actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) could help the ruling alliance retain power. PMJC’s most likely projection places the DMK-led alliance at 115–125 seats, potentially its narrowest mandate since 2006.

The report highlights several key electoral trends. Tamil Nadu now has 5.67 crore verified voters, following the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision which removed 74.07 lakh duplicate or invalid entries, making it the state’s cleanest electoral roll to date. Another historic shift is the rise in women voters, who now number 2.89 crore, surpassing male voters by over 12 lakh, making women a decisive voting bloc in the 2026 elections.

PMJC also notes a 28% probability of a hung assembly, the first such possibility since 1988. The emergence of TVK as a third political force, with a potential 20–40 seat range, could significantly influence outcomes in 40–60 constituencies, positioning the party as a potential kingmaker in a coalition scenario.

Economically, the report points out that Tamil Nadu’s GSDP has reached ₹31.19 lakh crore, making it India’s second-largest state economy with 11.19% growth in 2024–25. However, the state’s public debt has risen to ₹6.2 lakh crore, a challenge that the report says receives limited attention in political manifestos.

The report was formally presented by Sanjay Agarwal, Founder & Chairman of PMJC, along with members of the organisation, marking the launch of PMJC’s Special Election Intelligence Series.

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